REFERENDUMS, PLEBISCITES AND YES ALLIANCES
Well
folks, on Tuesday we got the starting gun being fired, that we have
all been waiting on. Now whether we all agree on the race track, is
open to our own opinion, but one thing I think we should all agree on
is that Tuesday has to be seen as the starting gun being fired.
I’ve
been listening and reading many opinions since Tuesday’s statement,
which in itself has been fantastic to see. Independence is again
being discussed and debated, and for me this is the evidence that it
has to be the beginning of the end, for the state and establishment
rule over Scotland and her people.
Before
I start delving into my personal opinions i’d again like to point
out that these opinions I try to keep as much party politics out of
them but where necessary I will make mention of all and any party
policies/strategies when it refers to the wider issue of our
Independence.
THE
RACE TRACK / THE ROUTE TO INDEPENDENCE
On
Tuesday First Minister Nicola Sturgeon laid out the Scottish
Government’s route to Independence.
Firstly,
we were told the date in the draft Independence bill was to be 19th
October 2023.
We
were then told that she would continue to seek a section 30 but, as
that was looking unlikely, the first step her government was taking
would be to instruct
the lord
advocate to
determine whether the Scottish government could hold a lawful
referendum without the section 30 by beginning
legal proceedings with the
Supreme Court. This she announced had been agreed by the lord
advocate and the papers had been sent to the supreme court that
afternoon (Tuesday 28 June).
We
were then told that should the Supreme Court decision come back and
rule in favour of the UK government, and indeed against the wishes of
the Scottish people as expressed in the 2021 Holyrood election, her
party would stand on a single question of Independence in the next
General Election.
My
initial reaction to this statement while watching was concern over
the Supreme Court route without the bill being passed first, but when
the plebiscite option was mentioned I became a bit more optimistic
maybe even excited.
After
reflecting on the routes that were set out and from
listening to statements from
members of Holyrood and Westminster governments, law experts and
certain journalists, I have come to the conclusion that as grass-root
Yessers we should get behind this route of a Referendum in 2019 or a
Plebiscite General election.
However
my thoughts on the
finer detail of how we do this may differ to that of the First
Minister and this is why.
19
OCTOBER 2023 REFERENDUM
I’d
like to start this part by saying, as an Indy Teuchter, this is a
fantastic date for the proposed referendum. There is another National
event of great importance taking place in Paisley between the 13th
and 21st
October 2023, some may know it as “The Whisky Olympics” others
might know it as the Royal National Mod.
If
this referendum takes place on the 19th
and the Yes vote is announced on the 20th,
there will be an almighty ceilidh in Paisley that night with
Teuchters from all over Scotland, and indeed the world, which could
very well last weeks if not months.
On
a more serious note though, whether I am confident of a referendum
taking place under the current strategy, I have to be honest and say
I remain doubtful.
I
believe one of three things will happen.
A)
The Supreme Court will either not hear the case as they have already
ruled on the Martin Keating case, on the basis of the question being
hypothetical as no bill had been passed. Important to
note the Scottish government and then Lord Advocate, James Wolfe,
also argued against Martin’s case.
B)
The case will be ruled against for reasons mentioned above, or they
will simply rule it is not a matter for the
devolved parliament.
C)
The case will be delayed long enough for the UK government to
‘adjust’ the rule book to their advantage, which again I believe
will lead to a ruling against the Scottish government.
However,
I do believe the Yes movement need to get behind this date and
mobilise again.
We
need to show the watching world who will be following the Court
proceedings with great interest, and that it is very much the will of
the Scottish people to be an Independent nation.
We
need to mobilise to show the Westminster government and make clear to
the Holyrood government, that we the people demand this referendum.
No ifs, no buts. This, combined with a competent
course of action by our MP’s and MSP’s can be used to force the
hand of Westminster to re-consider the issuing of a section 30. One
example of action could be to state that from now until a section 30
is granted, every election will be stood on as a plebiscite election.
There
are many ways that we, as a grassroots mobilisation, can also play
our part and I am sure we will see different groups/ organisations
setting out their own ideas. Something I
do think
groups and organisations need to consider, as I have mentioned
before, is working together to build a much better organised and
co-ordinated movement. Let’s not have two big events happening at
the same or similar timing, which is difficult and will get
progressively more difficult for activists to attend, given the cost
of living.
The
key is to co-ordinate and work together on events to encourage mass
participation. Imagine if you will… an event taking place with
AUOB/YES2 organising the march and Now Scotland/ BIS/ Hope Over Fear
organising the Rally.
This
should not be for our imaginations, this should be our reality.
We
all march and protest for the same cause. All it would take is the
organisers of these groups to get together, sit down and discuss an
agenda of events.
And
while remaining in an optimistic mood, this seems a good time
to move onto the plebiscite option.
PLEBISCITE
GENERAL ELECTION 2024 (or before)
As
mentioned at beginning, when I first heard the First Minister
announce her party would stand on the plebiscite option in the 2024
general election I was optimistic and excited. I assumed that this
would be on the basis of seats won, as former prime minister M**gie
Tha**her stated was all Scotland needed for independence. (Apologies
to anyone who may be traumatised by the mention of her!).
Days
after the announcement, we have been informed by the First Minister
and her Deputy (after correction) that the plebiscite would be on a
vote share. Thinking further on the subject, I believe this is
probably the most democratic approach. However it will be a much,
much more difficult approach. A single party approach on a vote share
basis will be a gift to the establishment.
There
are many reasons why I believe this would indeed be a gift, which I’m
not going to go into fully, as this may turn this into more a party
political issue and I want to keep with the wider and much more
important conversation about independence. That being said, I believe
If the election is fought with a Yes Alliance, then we have a whole
different election and campaign.
YES
ALLIANCE
A
Yes Alliance can have many meanings, the definition given in the
Oxford dictionary is
“a
union or association formed for mutual benefit.”
Now
I think we can all agree that independence is most certainly a mutual
benefit to us all.
When
a Yes Alliance is mentioned, most will likely straight away think -
SNP, Alba and the Greens. And yes, we absolutely need these three
parties in an Alliance. These three parties attract their own
different supporters but, at the same time, there are Yes supporters
that won’t vote for any or all of them, for whatever reason.
So
what can a Yes Alliance mean in the 2024 General Election if we don't
get the referendum? I think it can be one of two things.
If
we are fighting the election on the number of seats won, it has to be
an alliance of agreement to stand one candidate per seat. That, of
course, would need to be discussed and negotiated by the
aforementioned parties and we, as independence supporters, would have
to put our differences aside and forget about? party politics for the
election campaign.
But
if we are fighting the election on a vote share, I can not see any
reason why each party wouldn’t stand a candidate and take the
maximum votes we can for independence. I would actually go further
than this and say. we should encourage as many independence
supporting candidates as possible to stand to take maximum votes
achievable for independence.
I’ll
explain this further by listing some groups I’d hope to see
candidates come from.
Labour
For Independence
- I remember hearing that 40% of Labour members in Scotland supported
a second referendum. If they are still labour MEMBERS it’s unlikely
they would vote for SNP, Greens or Alba but they could vote for a
Labour For Independence candidate.
Christians
For Independence
– again similar reasoning, as I suspect there will be many
Christians who support independence but for certain reasons won’t
vote for SNP, Greens or Alba but would vote for a Christians For
Independence candidate.
English
Scots For Independence
- there are many people from England living in Scotland, if the
English Scots for Independence were to stand candidates, they could
appeal to many registered voters who might not otherwise vote.
These
are only a few options of existing groups or organisations, there
were others, for example, Crofting for Yes. There could also be
Farmers/Fishermen for Independence candidates for those adversely
affected by Brexit and wanting back into single market but not
willing to vote SNP, Greens or Alba.
This
could make a plebisite work and work well. It could appeal to all who
want independence, and maybe more importantly given the franchise of
Westminster elections, it could appeal to those who aren't on the
electoral register but who are eligible to vote.
I
would also hope this could set a standard for a future independent
Scotland to not only have 3 or 4 parties that can be effective in
elections but instead have 8,10, 12 where
a
more widespread opinions and representation could be made!
EXPECTED
ARGUMENTS
I
suspect many will not agree with this approach initially and I can
imagine the reasons for not agreeing, as they are the reasons I have
questioned myself about.
I
am now convinced they aren’t issues we need worry about, having had
most of the arguments with myself and the conclusion/answers I came
up with are:
SPLITTING
THE VOTE
If
a Plebiscite is based on vote share, you can’t split the vote.
If
6 candidates stand on an independence mandate, and all get 10%, you
win with a 60% vote share.
MANDATE/POLICY
AGREEMENT
As
long as every candidate standing in support for Independence were to
have the same No.1 policy of independence, word for word, then what
they do with the rest of their manifesto would be up to them. The
No.1 policy could be as simple as – A VOTE FOR xxxxx IS A VOTE FOR
SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE
LOSING
SEATS WITH FIRST PAST THE POST FRANCHISE
If
it is stated that this is a plebiscite based on vote share then what
do seats really matter?
How
much importance would
the
Westminster seats have in us
declaring and negotiating our independence?
Take
the
example of
2012, with
6 MPs the
2014 referendum was negotiated,
now in 2022 with 45 MPs we can’t negotiate a referendum,
To
me this states that any independence negotiations after
a declaration by the people in a
plebiscite election,
will only
succeed if
negotiated by
a Scottish government, assembly or convention that
has the
political will to do so.
If
we won more than 50% it would be for the Scottish Government to serve
our declaration of independence to the Westminster government and
begin negotiations. Should Westminster refuse to enter negotiations I
believe that is where our best two assets we haven’t yet spoken of
come in.
So
far we have discussed the Scottish Government’s stated route to
independence, but for me they missed a key issue on the realistic
prospect that Westminster refuses to recognise the election result.
We
cannot fall into the trap of needing another mandate, and that
worries me.
I
believe any refusal to recognise an election result in our favour,
would be the time to bring in Kenny MacAskill and Alba’s
Independence Convention policy, where all elected representatives of
Scotland and (
in this case all those who stood on the Independence mandate) are
re-convened to a convention or assembly which would urgently discuss
and debate how to make sure the vote is acted upon.
Which
leads to the second of Scotland’s assets, of using The Claim Of
Right. A campaign is currently being launched by Sara Salyers and the
Salvo group, to discuss and inform us all on what the Claim Of Right
really means, and how it can be used.
You
can read more about Salvo and the work they are doing with the Claim Of Right here SALVO- CLAIM OF RIGHT
I
believe Sara will also be discussing it at the SSRG Conference.
See
here for details SSRG CONFERENCE AND EVENTS
Again
these are only my personal opinions. I am sure there will be plenty
others for and against, or indeed with completely different
strategies, but importantly these strategies are linked by the
commitment of the Scottish people in
wanting to progress
towards
re-gaining our rightful place as an Independent nation and escaping
the shackles of this treacherous, controlling union.