REFERENDUMS, PLEBISCITES AND YES ALLIANCES 

Well folks, on Tuesday we got the starting gun being fired, that we have all been waiting on. Now whether we all agree on the race track, is open to our own opinion, but one thing I think we should all agree on is that Tuesday has to be seen as the starting gun being fired.

I’ve been listening and reading many opinions since Tuesday’s statement, which in itself has been fantastic to see. Independence is again being discussed and debated, and for me this is the evidence that it has to be the beginning of the end, for the state and establishment rule over Scotland and her people.

Before I start delving into my personal opinions i’d again like to point out that these opinions I try to keep as much party politics out of them but where necessary I will make mention of all and any party policies/strategies when it refers to the wider issue of our Independence.

THE RACE TRACK / THE ROUTE TO INDEPENDENCE

On Tuesday First Minister Nicola Sturgeon laid out the Scottish Government’s route to Independence.

Firstly, we were told the date in the draft Independence bill was to be 19^th October 2023.

We were then told that she would continue to seek a section 30 but, as that was looking unlikely, the first step her government was taking would be to instruct the lord advocate to determine whether the Scottish government could hold a lawful referendum without the section 30 by beginning legal proceedings with the Supreme Court. This she announced had been agreed by the lord advocate and the papers had been sent to the supreme court that afternoon (Tuesday 28 June).

We were then told that should the Supreme Court decision come back and rule in favour of the UK government, and indeed against the wishes of the Scottish people as expressed in the 2021 Holyrood election, her party would stand on a single question of Independence in the next General Election.

My initial reaction to this statement while watching was concern over the Supreme Court route without the bill being passed first, but when the plebiscite option was mentioned I became a bit more optimistic maybe even excited.

After reflecting on the routes that were set out and from listening to statements from members of Holyrood and Westminster governments, law experts and certain journalists, I have come to the conclusion that as grass-root Yessers we should get behind this route of a Referendum in 2019 or a Plebiscite General election.

However my thoughts on the finer detail of how we do this may differ to that of the First Minister and this is why.

19 OCTOBER 2023 REFERENDUM

I’d like to start this part by saying, as an Indy Teuchter, this is a fantastic date for the proposed referendum. There is another National event of great importance taking place in Paisley between the 13^th and 21^st October 2023, some may know it as “The Whisky Olympics” others might know it as the Royal National Mod.

If this referendum takes place on the 19^th and the Yes vote is announced on the 20^th, there will be an almighty ceilidh in Paisley that night with Teuchters from all over Scotland, and indeed the world, which could very well last weeks if not months.

On a more serious note though, whether I am confident of a referendum taking place under the current strategy, I have to be honest and say I remain doubtful.

I believe one of three things will happen.

A) The Supreme Court will either not hear the case as they have already ruled on the Martin Keating case, on the basis of the question being hypothetical as no bill had been passed. Important to note the Scottish government and then Lord Advocate, James Wolfe, also argued against Martin’s case.

B) The case will be ruled against for reasons mentioned above, or they will simply rule it is not a matter for the devolved parliament.

C) The case will be delayed long enough for the UK government to ‘adjust’ the rule book to their advantage, which again I believe will lead to a ruling against the Scottish government.

However, I do believe the Yes movement need to get behind this date and mobilise again.

We need to show the watching world who will be following the Court proceedings with great interest, and that it is very much the will of the Scottish people to be an Independent nation.

We need to mobilise to show the Westminster government and make clear to the Holyrood government, that we the people demand this referendum. No ifs, no buts. This, combined with a competent course of action by our MP’s and MSP’s can be used to force the hand of Westminster to re-consider the issuing of a section 30. One example of action could be to state that from now until a section 30 is granted, every election will be stood on as a plebiscite election.

There are many ways that we, as a grassroots mobilisation, can also play our part and I am sure we will see different groups/ organisations setting out their own ideas. Something I do think groups and organisations need to consider, as I have mentioned before, is working together to build a much better organised and co-ordinated movement. Let’s not have two big events happening at the same or similar timing, which is difficult and will get progressively more difficult for activists to attend, given the cost of living.

The key is to co-ordinate and work together on events to encourage mass participation. Imagine if you will… an event taking place with AUOB/YES2 organising the march and Now Scotland/ BIS/ Hope Over Fear organising the Rally.

This should not be for our imaginations, this should be our reality.

We all march and protest for the same cause. All it would take is the organisers of these groups to get together, sit down and discuss an agenda of events.

And while remaining in an optimistic mood, this seems a good time to move onto the plebiscite option.

PLEBISCITE GENERAL ELECTION 2024 (or before)

As mentioned at beginning, when I first heard the First Minister announce her party would stand on the plebiscite option in the 2024 general election I was optimistic and excited. I assumed that this would be on the basis of seats won, as former prime minister M**gie Tha**her stated was all Scotland needed for independence. (Apologies to anyone who may be traumatised by the mention of her!).

Days after the announcement, we have been informed by the First Minister and her Deputy (after correction) that the plebiscite would be on a vote share. Thinking further on the subject, I believe this is probably the most democratic approach. However it will be a much, much more difficult approach. A single party approach on a vote share basis will be a gift to the establishment.

There are many reasons why I believe this would indeed be a gift, which I’m not going to go into fully, as this may turn this into more a party political issue and I want to keep with the wider and much more important conversation about independence. That being said, I believe If the election is fought with a Yes Alliance, then we have a whole different election and campaign.

YES ALLIANCE

A Yes Alliance can have many meanings, the definition given in the Oxford dictionary is

“a union or association formed for mutual benefit.”

Now I think we can all agree that independence is most certainly a mutual benefit to us all.

When a Yes Alliance is mentioned, most will likely straight away think - SNP, Alba and the Greens. And yes, we absolutely need these three parties in an Alliance. These three parties attract their own different supporters but, at the same time, there are Yes supporters that won’t vote for any or all of them, for whatever reason.

So what can a Yes Alliance mean in the 2024 General Election if we don't get the referendum? I think it can be one of two things.

If we are fighting the election on the number of seats won, it has to be an alliance of agreement to stand one candidate per seat. That, of course, would need to be discussed and negotiated by the aforementioned parties and we, as independence supporters, would have to put our differences aside and forget about? party politics for the election campaign.

But if we are fighting the election on a vote share, I can not see any reason why each party wouldn’t stand a candidate and take the maximum votes we can for independence. I would actually go further than this and say. we should encourage as many independence supporting candidates as possible to stand to take maximum votes achievable for independence.

I’ll explain this further by listing some groups I’d hope to see candidates come from.

Labour For Independence - I remember hearing that 40% of Labour members in Scotland supported a second referendum. If they are still labour MEMBERS it’s unlikely they would vote for SNP, Greens or Alba but they could vote for a Labour For Independence candidate.

Christians For Independence – again similar reasoning, as I suspect there will be many Christians who support independence but for certain reasons won’t vote for SNP, Greens or Alba but would vote for a Christians For Independence candidate.

English Scots For Independence - there are many people from England living in Scotland, if the English Scots for Independence were to stand candidates, they could appeal to many registered voters who might not otherwise vote.

These are only a few options of existing groups or organisations, there were others, for example, Crofting for Yes. There could also be Farmers/Fishermen for Independence candidates for those adversely affected by Brexit and wanting back into single market but not willing to vote SNP, Greens or Alba.

This could make a plebisite work and work well. It could appeal to all who want independence, and maybe more importantly given the franchise of Westminster elections, it could appeal to those who aren't on the electoral register but who are eligible to vote.

I would also hope this could set a standard for a future independent Scotland to not only have 3 or 4 parties that can be effective in elections but instead have 8,10, 12 where a more widespread opinions and representation could be made!

EXPECTED ARGUMENTS

I suspect many will not agree with this approach initially and I can imagine the reasons for not agreeing, as they are the reasons I have questioned myself about.

I am now convinced they aren’t issues we need worry about, having had most of the arguments with myself and the conclusion/answers I came up with are:

SPLITTING THE VOTE

If a Plebiscite is based on vote share, you can’t split the vote.

If 6 candidates stand on an independence mandate, and all get 10%, you win with a 60% vote share.

MANDATE/POLICY AGREEMENT

As long as every candidate standing in support for Independence were to have the same No.1 policy of independence, word for word, then what they do with the rest of their manifesto would be up to them. The No.1 policy could be as simple as – A VOTE FOR xxxxx IS A VOTE FOR SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE

LOSING SEATS WITH FIRST PAST THE POST FRANCHISE

If it is stated that this is a plebiscite based on vote share then what do seats really matter?

How much importance would the Westminster seats have in us declaring and negotiating our independence?
Take the example of 2012, with 6 MPs the 2014 referendum was negotiated, now in 2022 with 45 MPs we can’t negotiate a referendum,
To me this states that any independence negotiations after a declaration by the people in a plebiscite election, will only succeed if negotiated by a Scottish government, assembly or convention that has the political will to do so.

If we won more than 50% it would be for the Scottish Government to serve our declaration of independence to the Westminster government and begin negotiations. Should Westminster refuse to enter negotiations I believe that is where our best two assets we haven’t yet spoken of come in.

So far we have discussed the Scottish Government’s stated route to independence, but for me they missed a key issue on the realistic prospect that Westminster refuses to recognise the election result.

We cannot fall into the trap of needing another mandate, and that worries me.

I believe any refusal to recognise an election result in our favour, would be the time to bring in Kenny MacAskill and Alba’s Independence Convention policy, where all elected representatives of Scotland and ( in this case all those who stood on the Independence mandate) are re-convened to a convention or assembly which would urgently discuss and debate how to make sure the vote is acted upon.

Which leads to the second of Scotland’s assets, of using The Claim Of Right. A campaign is currently being launched by Sara Salyers and the Salvo group, to discuss and inform us all on what the Claim Of Right really means, and how it can be used.

You can read more about Salvo and the work they are doing with the Claim Of Right here SALVO- CLAIM OF RIGHT

I believe Sara will also be discussing it at the SSRG Conference.

See here for details SSRG CONFERENCE AND EVENTS

Again these are only my personal opinions. I am sure there will be plenty others for and against, or indeed with completely different strategies, but importantly these strategies are linked by the commitment of the Scottish people in wanting to progress towards re-gaining our rightful place as an Independent nation and escaping the shackles of this treacherous, controlling union.